15: Pressure Cooker Investing, Virtualism & Privilege, Kurt Vonnegut Ruined Your Graduation, Fast Times, Caroline Polachek, Orwell Down And Out
If you set yourself to it, you can live the same life, rich or poor. You can keep on with your books and your ideas. You just got to say to yourself, "I'm a free man in here" - George Orwell
Investing & Business
Pressure Cooker Investing
Reading time: ~10 minutes
Great macro post by Ensemble Capital on the new challenges causes by a roaring economy, especially addressing inflation and demand/supply imbalances.
Insight #1: Americans have never made or owned more money
Americans have never made so much money! While the recession that struck in March 2020 was the fastest economic decline in history and very deep, American households brought in more income in 2020 than any year on record. That this was achieved due to massive transfer payments from the government is important for understanding context. But regardless, income received via wages or transfer payments represents American consumers’ purchasing power. And in the first quarter of 2021, income shot even higher.
Insight #2: This amount of excess savings, along with newly decided public spending, will have a long-lasting effect on the economy by boosting demand
Consumers have been both restricted in their ability to spend money and have likely desired to hold higher levels of savings due to the high levels of economic uncertainty. But this delay in spending means that American households currently have approximately $3 trillion more in their checking and savings accounts than they did pre-pandemic. And now, as those savings are starting to be spent even while wages begin to accelerate, consumer spending has rocketed to new all time highs.
Insight #3: Recessions are boons for productivity
Note the red boxes which are located during the last four recessions. During recessions, companies and their employees figure out how to do more with less. And as demand comes back, rather than give up these productivity gains, companies and their employees maintain them and add more.
Thought-provoking stuff…
Virtualism & Privilege
Reading time: ~10 minutes
Great post on the Reactions Substack, in the trail of the series of posts on The Decadent Society.
The post reflects on Andresseen’s defense of virtualism in a recent interview, where he said:
Your question is a great example of what I call Reality Privilege. This is a paraphrase of a concept articulated by Beau Cronin: "Consider the possibility that a visceral defense of the physical, and an accompanying dismissal of the virtual as inferior or escapist, is a result of superuser privileges." A small percent of people live in a real-world environment that is rich, even overflowing, with glorious substance, beautiful settings, plentiful stimulation, and many fascinating people to talk to, and to work with, and to date. These are also *all* of the people who get to ask probing questions like yours. Everyone else, the vast majority of humanity, lacks Reality Privilege -- their online world is, or will be, immeasurably richer and more fulfilling than most of the physical and social environment around them in the quote-unquote real world.
As a result, (now contrarian) virtualism might just be class/privilege signalling:
The Reality Privileged, of course, call this conclusion dystopian, and demand that we prioritize improvements in reality over improvements in virtuality. To which I say: reality has had 5,000 years to get good, and is clearly still woefully lacking for most people; I don't think we should wait another 5,000 years to see if it eventually closes the gap. We should build -- and we are building -- online worlds that make life and work and love wonderful for everyone, no matter what level of reality deprivation they find themselves in.
Arts & History
Kurt Vonnegut Words To Live By
Reading time: ~10 minutes
LAPHAM’s quarterly has been publishing a series on famous commencement speech, and this one by Kurt Vonnegut was simply brilliant.
Remember a good soul who expanded your horizon
I first declare to you that the most wonderful thing, the most valuable thing you can get from an education is this—the memory of one person who could really teach, whose lessons made life and yourselves much more interesting and full of possibilities than you had previously supposed possible.
I count at least five, what's your Vonnegut number?
A grown-up is not much more than a former child
For you freshly minted college graduates, this is a puberty ceremony long overdue. We, whose principal achievement is that we are older than you, have to acknowledge at last that you are grown-ups, too. There are old poops possibly among us on this very day who will say that you are not grown-ups until you have somehow survived, as they have, some famous calamity—the Great Depression, World War II, Vietnam, whatever. Storytellers are responsible for this destructive, not to say suicidal, myth. Again and again in stories, after some terrible mess, the character is able to say at last, “Today, I am a woman; today I am a man. The end.”
I apologize. I said I would apologize; I apologize now. I apologize because of the terrible mess the planet is in. But it has always been a mess. There have never been any “Good Old Days,” there have just been days. And as I say to my grandchildren, “Don’t look at me. I just got here myself.”
What is it artists do?
The teacher whose name I thought of when we all remembered good teachers asked me one time, “What is it artists do?” And I mumbled something. “They do two things,” he said. “First, they admit they can’t straighten out the whole universe. And then second, they make at least one little part of it exactly as it should be. A blob of clay, a square of canvas, a piece of paper, or whatever.” We have all worked so hard and well to make these moments and this place exactly what it should be.
Your quick stoicism: cherish the little pleasures
I had a good uncle named Alex, who said, when life was most agreeable—and it could be just a pitcher of lemonade in the shade—he would say, “If this isn’t nice, what is?”
Fast Times - a Culture E-Zine
Reading time: ~10 minutes
I’ve discovered fast times recently after the got featured in one of Substack’s promotional emails and really like the concept.
The Fast Times is a culture e-zine for Gen X (and wannabes) designed to be an intergenerational conversation-starter and discovery tool, all with a touch of clever nostalgia and smart snark
Every issue is built and feels like rediscovering an old cassette. As they describe the form they chose:
Every issue of The Fast Times boasts a central theme based on historical precedents set by Xers, which we then compare to interesting parallels unfolding today: #CancelCulture and “Political Correctness”, livestream shopping and QVC, Twitch heroes and mall arcade legends. To boil it all down, we compare the life experiences and societal happenings of the ‘80s and ‘90s to today’s trends. Turns out, they’re not so different.
We also strive to represent a complete picture of the ‘80s, ‘90s, and correlations to today, which is why we focus on themes like Detroit Techno and Riot grrrl feminism in addition to some of the more mass relevant references. We want this to be a place where all Xers feel represented, shining a spotlight on events, fashion, art, communities, and issues of the day that didn’t get due credit – then or since.
Treat for the Ears
"Don't you hate it when you find something way too late? Like over a decade too late?"
Other Interesting Links
The McFly - BACK to the 80s + Video Games & Cereal Airbnb House
A wonderful book review of Orwell’s Down And Out in Paris (Again from the ACX review contest!)
Until next week!
Antoine